Merchantec Capital's CEO Confidence Index

About the CEO Confidence Index

The Merchantec CEO Confidence Index is a quarterly copyright report which collates the views of CEO’s of listed, large private and multinational companies in South Africa since 2009. CEOs are key players in the market and economy and are instrumental in influencing the future of Corporate SA. Therefore, by collecting CEOs views, the CEO Confidence Index provides a leading indicator of economic and market conditions as well as insight into how South African business leaders perceive the economy going forward.

The Index is unique in that it accounts for CEO Confidence according to sectors – making a good connection to Company prospects in the various sectors.

Merchantec Capital supports the Nelson Mandela Children’s Fund

Merchantec Capital has made a commitment to donate R100 to the Nelson Mandela Children’s Fund on behalf of each CEO who completes the questionnaire. Donations will go toward the operation and development of the Nelson Mandela Children’s Hospital, which provides specialised care to South Africa’s underprivileged children. Learn more about this initiative and the beneficiary by clicking here.

Our Latest Report

South African CEO Confidence Plummets Amid Economic Concerns

95% of CEOs believe inefficient and wasteful government spending is the primary cause of South Africa’s budget deficit.

Merchantec Capital’s latest CEO Confidence Index recorded a sharp decline from 53.9 points in Q4 2024 to 45.2 points this quarter, marking a substantial dip in sentiment among business leaders, reflecting growing concern over economic growth, industry stability, and access to capital.

A key finding from Merchantec Capital’s latest survey reveals that 95% of CEOs attribute South Africa’s budget deficit to inefficient and wasteful government spending. Many urge cost-cutting measures, including reducing the bloated cabinet and improving government efficiency. CEO’s also noted the need to reduce excessive regulatory barriers and policymakers to focus on strategies that benefit legal residents and foster a business-friendly environment to stimulate economic growth. Business leaders insist that long-term fiscal stability hinges on holistic structural reforms to improve economic resilience, enhance tax collection, and decrease reliance on debt.

This quarter’s survey revealed an extraordinary volume of commentary from CEOs, demonstrating heightened concern about the state of the economy and the recent national budget. The volume and intensity of CEO feedback indicate a growing frustration with the status quo, reinforcing the need for decisive action.

Business leaders are calling for immediate reforms to stabilise fiscal conditions, encourage investment, and drive sustainable growth.

In Q1 2025, confidence declined across all sectors, with some experiencing sharper drops than others. The most significant declines, ranging between 16% and 23%, were driven by concerns over economic conditions, reduced expectations for industry growth, and challenges in securing debt or equity capital. Sentiment around investment levels also weakened, contributing to the overall downturn. While some sectors saw more modest declines, the trend reflects a broader sense of caution and uncertainty in the market.

Financials faced the most significant decline, with a 23% drop in confidence. This overall decrease was influenced by economic conditions, expectations for industry growth, and the ability to secure debt or equity capital. Issues such as inefficient and wasteful expenditure, corruption, and fraud have exacerbated the economic climate, leading to a lack of confidence in the industry’s ability to grow and thrive.

Consumer Staples experienced a decline of 16%, resulting in a score of 57.11. This drop was mainly caused by a 27% reduction in confidence regarding economic conditions and a 19% decrease in their capacity to obtain debt or equity capital.

Information Technology saw a decline in confidence, resulting in a score of 51.90 points, which reflects a 16% decrease.

Health Care experienced a modest decline to 50 points, marking a 6% drop.

Materials also noted a decrease in confidence, falling by 16%. This decline was largely attributed to a 35% drop in confidence concerning economic conditions and a 17% decrease related to their intended investment levels.

Consumer Discretionary recorded the third-largest decline in confidence, dropping by 20%, to a score of 49.17. The decrease in sentiment was primarily driven by a 37% reduction concerning economic conditions.

Real Estate saw an 18% drop in confidence, bringing the score down to 55 points. This decline was mainly influenced by a 36% reduction in confidence regarding their ability to secure debt or equity capital.

Industrials recorded the second-largest decrease in confidence, dropping 16%, resulting in a score of 50.78 points.

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Past Reports

Q4 2024

70% of CEOs Cautiously Optimistic for 2025 GDP Growth at 1.5% Amid Slight Confidence Drop

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Q3 2024

Merchantec CEO Confidence Index Climbs by 7% in Q3 as CEOs Anticipate a GDP Growth Rate of 1.5%

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Q2 2024

Merchantec CEO Confidence Upswings by 13% in Q2 2024 Amid Economic and Political Optimism in South Africa

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Q1 2024

80% of CEOs believe that the ANC’s support will fall below 50%

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Q4 2023

Siya Kolisi’s Leadership Shines Amidst a 6% Drop in CEO Confidence

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Q3 2023

Over Half of South African CEOs Express Doubts About BRICS Benefits, Reveals CCI Q3 Questionnaire

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Q2 2023

Basic Resources Sector Leads the Way as CEO Confidence Improves

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Q1 2023

100% of CEO’s support Merchantec’s CSR initiative while confidence drops to lowest level since 2019

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Q4 2022

CEOs Confidence deteriorates as the year comes to an end

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Q3 2022

79% of CEO’s believe increased digital inclusion through expanded internet access for SA consumers will benefit their business 

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Q2 2022

75% of CEO’s think that the SA economy will dip into a recession over the next 12 months as CEO Confidence decreases by almost 20%

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Q1 2022

Basic Resources CEO’s Confidence at an all time high while inflation is set to breach SARB’s 3-6% range

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In the Media

Q2 2024 interview with Fifi Peters from CNBC Africa
Q1 2024 interview with Gugulethu Mfuphi of KayaBiz
Q1 2024 interview with Zanele Morrison from CNBC Africa
Q3 2023 interview with Gugulethu Mfuphi of KayaBiz
Q2 2023 interview with Marcelle Gordon from eNCA
Q1 2023 interview with Gareth Edwards from eNCA