Merchantec Capital's CEO Confidence Index

About the CEO Confidence Index

The Merchantec CEO Confidence Index is a quarterly copyright report which collates the views of CEO’s of listed, large private and multinational companies in South Africa since 2009. CEOs are key players in the market and economy and are instrumental in influencing the future of Corporate SA. Therefore, by collecting CEOs views, the CEO Confidence Index provides a leading indicator of economic and market conditions as well as insight into how South African business leaders perceive the economy going forward.

The Index is unique in that it accounts for CEO Confidence according to sectors – making a good connection to Company prospects in the various sectors.

Merchantec Capital supports the Nelson Mandela Children’s Fund

Merchantec Capital has made a commitment to donate R100 to the Nelson Mandela Children’s Fund on behalf of each CEO who completes the questionnaire. Donations will go toward the operation and development of the Nelson Mandela Children’s Hospital, which provides specialised care to South Africa’s underprivileged children. Learn more about this initiative and the beneficiary by clicking here.

Our Latest Report

Merchantec CEO Confidence Index Climbs by 7% in Q3 as CEOs Anticipate a GDP Growth Rate of 1.5%

The Merchantec CEO Confidence Index has recorded a 7% increase in CEO confidence in Q3 of 2024, rising to a score of 55.0. This improvement reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook among South African business leaders, spurred by positive developments in the formation of the business-friendly GNU, and the recent reliable electricity generation, however, CEOs realise there is still a lot of work to be done to reduce Government spending and inefficiencies, interest rates, crime and policy uncertainties.

Looking ahead, the majority of CEOs anticipate a GDP growth rate of 1.5% for 2025 which aligns to the South African Reserve Banks forecasted GDP growth rate. Despite economic, governmental, and regulatory challenges, there is an underlying hopeful sentiment for significant advancements in governance and infrastructure to support economic development.

Overall, 65% of CEOs perceive current economic conditions and industry growth expectations to be moderately to substantially better compared to 6 months ago, while 68% of CEOs also have moderately to substantially higher growth expectations for their company.

The rise in confidence among business leaders is positive, as it is likely to drive higher levels of investments in areas such as capital expenditure, personnel expansion, acquisitions and more.

Sector-Specific Insights:

Industrials increased by 7% which was primarily driven by a 25% increase in perceived economic conditions and a 10% increase in confidence relating to company growth expectations.

Financials recorded the largest increase in confidence at 23% moving to a score of 71.14 points. The increase in overall confidence was primarily driven by an increase in perceived economic conditions and industry growth prospects.

Information Technology increased by 8%. The increase in overall confidence was primarily driven by a 39% increase in perceived economic conditions and a 23% increase  in planned levels of investment.

Consumer Discretionary recorded the second largest increase of 22%. The increase in overall confidence was driven by increases in contributing individual components of the index namely, 65% increase relating to improved economic conditions, increase in industry growth expectations by 39%,  company growth expectations by 12% and in planned level of investment by 14%, despite confidence in the ability to secure debt or equity capital remaining flat.

Consumer Staples went up to a score of 61.67 seeing a 4% increase in overall confidence supported by stable demand for essential goods and improved supply chain efficiencies.

Health Care went up by 6% despite a 37% drop in confidence relating to industry growth expectations. The primary area of concern is due to challenges including regulatory hurdles and cost pressures.

Materials recorded the third largest increase in confidence at 21% moving to a score of 64.44 points. The increase in overall confidence was primarily driven by a 77% increase in industry growth prospects.

Real Estate saw an 18% increase which was predominantly driven by a 25% increase in confidence relating to economic conditions.

Communications Services recorded the only decrease of 4%, despite still being the most confident sector overall at 81.23 points.

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Past Reports

Q2 2024

Merchantec CEO Confidence Upswings by 13% in Q2 2024 Amid Economic and Political Optimism in South Africa

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Q1 2024

80% of CEOs believe that the ANC’s support will fall below 50%

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Q4 2023

Siya Kolisi’s Leadership Shines Amidst a 6% Drop in CEO Confidence

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Q3 2023

Over Half of South African CEOs Express Doubts About BRICS Benefits, Reveals CCI Q3 Questionnaire

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Q2 2023

Basic Resources Sector Leads the Way as CEO Confidence Improves

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Q1 2023

100% of CEO’s support Merchantec’s CSR initiative while confidence drops to lowest level since 2019

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Q4 2022

CEOs Confidence deteriorates as the year comes to an end

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Q3 2022

79% of CEO’s believe increased digital inclusion through expanded internet access for SA consumers will benefit their business 

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Q2 2022

75% of CEO’s think that the SA economy will dip into a recession over the next 12 months as CEO Confidence decreases by almost 20%

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Q1 2022

Basic Resources CEO’s Confidence at an all time high while inflation is set to breach SARB’s 3-6% range

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In the Media

Q2 2024 interview with Fifi Peters from CNBC Africa
Q1 2024 interview with Gugulethu Mfuphi of KayaBiz
Q1 2024 interview with Zanele Morrison from CNBC Africa
Q3 2023 interview with Gugulethu Mfuphi of KayaBiz
Q2 2023 interview with Marcelle Gordon from eNCA
Q1 2023 interview with Gareth Edwards from eNCA