Merchantec Capital's CEO Confidence Index

About the CEO Confidence Index

The Merchantec CEO Confidence Index is a quarterly copyright report which collates the views of CEO’s of listed, large private and multinational companies in South Africa since 2009. CEOs are key players in the market and economy and are instrumental in influencing the future of Corporate SA. Therefore, by collecting CEOs views, the CEO Confidence Index provides a leading indicator of economic and market conditions as well as insight into how South African business leaders perceive the economy going forward.

The Index is unique in that it accounts for CEO Confidence according to sectors – making a good connection to Company prospects in the various sectors.

Merchantec Capital supports the Nelson Mandela Children’s Fund

Merchantec Capital has made a commitment to donate R100 to the Nelson Mandela Children’s Fund on behalf of each CEO who completes the questionnaire. Donations will go toward the operation and development of the Nelson Mandela Children’s Hospital, which provides specialised care to South Africa’s underprivileged children. Learn more about this initiative and the beneficiary by clicking here.

Our Latest Report

Merchantec CEO Confidence Upswings by 13% in Q2 2024 Amid Economic and Political Optimism in South Africa

The Merchantec CEO Confidence Index recorded a 13% increase in CEO confidence, rising to a score of 51.4. This improvement was driven by a 24% increase in the Consumer Staples sector and the recent absence of loadshedding.

The Index has experienced notable fluctuations over the past few years. It started at 43.33 points in Q1 2019, showed modest gains, then dropped to 39.9 by the end of that year.

A strong recovery in 2021 saw the index peak at 58.4 in Q4. In 2022, it started high at 57.0, dipped to 47.9 in Q2, then recovered to 54.6 in Q3, ending at 52.6 in Q4.

In 2023, it started at 44.4, gradually climbed to 51.4 by year’s end, and continued this upward trend into 2024, starting at 45.4 in Q1. These changes indicate a pattern of cautious optimism among CEOs, influenced by varying market conditions and economic pressures.

Watch interview with Fifi Peters from CNBC Africa & Myles Waldeck, Head of M&A Buy Side at Merchantec Capital

Specific sectors saw varying changes in Q2 of 2024:

Materials increased by 6% to 50.71 points, driven by industry growth expectations.

Information Technology increased to a score of 59.17 points, reflecting an 11% increase.

Consumer Staples increased to 59.58 a 31% increase.

Consumer Discretionary decreased by 4%, mainly attributed to economic conditions.

Financials increased by 8%, moving to a score of 59.76 from 55.54 in Q1 of 2024.

Industrials increased by 13%, moving to a score of 57.98.

Communications Services remained flat at a score of 85 points.

Health Care increased by 10%, driven predominantly by the ability to secure debt.

Real Estate increased by 28%, driven by increased confidence relating to industry growth expectations.

Merchantec Capital’s latest CEO Confidence Index provides an insightful perspective on South Africa’s democratic function, with many CEOs maintaining a cautiously optimistic outlook, influenced by political stability and the absence of loadshedding.

The recent formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) cabinet has sparked hopes for better governance, with CEOs noting significant operational benefits from recent political changes and uninterrupted power supply.

However, concerns persist about the coalition’s effectiveness and adherence to constitutional mandates, with some CEOs skeptical about the potential challenges and economic impacts of race-based policies. Low voter turnout and internal political dynamics are also seen as potential threats to the stability and effectiveness of the GNU.

Past Reports

Q1 2024

80% of CEOs believe that the ANC’s support will fall below 50%

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Q4 2023

Siya Kolisi’s Leadership Shines Amidst a 6% Drop in CEO Confidence

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Q3 2023

Over Half of South African CEOs Express Doubts About BRICS Benefits, Reveals CCI Q3 Questionnaire

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Q2 2023

Basic Resources Sector Leads the Way as CEO Confidence Improves

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Q1 2023

100% of CEO’s support Merchantec’s CSR initiative while confidence drops to lowest level since 2019

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Q4 2022

CEOs Confidence deteriorates as the year comes to an end

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Q3 2022

79% of CEO’s believe increased digital inclusion through expanded internet access for SA consumers will benefit their business 

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Q2 2022

75% of CEO’s think that the SA economy will dip into a recession over the next 12 months as CEO Confidence decreases by almost 20%

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Q1 2022

Basic Resources CEO’s Confidence at an all time high while inflation is set to breach SARB’s 3-6% range

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In the Media

Q2 2024 interview with Fifi Peters from CNBC Africa
Q1 2024 interview with Gugulethu Mfuphi of KayaBiz
Q1 2024 interview with Zanele Morrison from CNBC Africa
Q3 2023 interview with Gugulethu Mfuphi of KayaBiz
Q2 2023 interview with Marcelle Gordon from eNCA
Q1 2023 interview with Gareth Edwards from eNCA