Merchantec Capital's CEO Confidence Index

About the CEO Confidence Index

The Merchantec CEO Confidence Index is a quarterly copyright report which collates the views of CEO’s of listed, large private and multinational companies in South Africa since 2009. CEOs are key players in the market and economy and are instrumental in influencing the future of Corporate SA. Therefore, by collecting CEOs views, the CEO Confidence Index provides a leading indicator of economic and market conditions as well as insight into how South African business leaders perceive the economy going forward.

The Index is unique in that it accounts for CEO Confidence according to sectors – making a good connection to Company prospects in the various sectors.

Merchantec Capital supports the Nelson Mandela Children’s Fund

Merchantec Capital has made a commitment to donate R110 to the Nelson Mandela Children’s Fund on behalf of each CEO who completes the questionnaire. Donations will go toward the operation and development of the Nelson Mandela Children’s Hospital, which provides specialised care to South Africa’s underprivileged children. Learn more about this initiative and the beneficiary by clicking here.

Our Latest Report

75% of CEOs Back SARB’s Inflation Target Cut as Confidence Flatlines

The Q2 2025 Merchantec CEO Confidence Index reveals a near‑flatline in overall CEO sentiment, inching up from 45.2 in Q1 to just 45.3. Confidence has bottomed out at these levels, underscoring the enduring pressure on South African corporate leaders amid persistent economic turbulence.

Support for the SARB’s proposal is strongest in the Industrials, Financials, and Information Technology sectors, where CEOs believe it could help boost investor confidence, reduce borrowing costs, stabilise the rand, and align the country with international monetary standards. However, CEOs in Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Health Care sectors expressed caution, warning that tighter monetary policy could stifle demand in an already fragile economy.

While many acknowledged the long-term benefits of lower inflation, they stressed that external forces such as global commodity prices and currency volatility limit SARB’s influence. Several CEOs also emphasised that without addressing inefficiencies in state-owned enterprises, corruption, and public overspending, the policy risks doing more harm than good. Other concerns included the potential drag on growth from higher interest rates and the lack of infrastructure and regulatory readiness to support such a shift.

In summary, while there is strong CEO backing for the proposed inflation target adjustment, the message is clear: it must be embedded within a credible and holistic economic reform agenda to truly restore confidence and unlock long-term growth.

Sector-Specific Insights:

Consumer Discretionary recorded a 43% increase in confidence regarding economic conditions and a 22% rise in investment sentiment. Company growth expectations improved by 8%, while industry growth dipped slightly by 8%. However, confidence in access to debt or equity capital dropped sharply by 100%, indicating a complete loss of confidence in funding availability.

Consumer Staples experienced a 19% decline in confidence regarding economic conditions and a 14% drop in industry growth expectations. Company growth sentiment fell by 4%, while access to capital improved by 5% and investment sentiment rose by 8%, suggesting cautious optimism despite macroeconomic concerns.

Financials showed broad-based improvement across all categories. Confidence in economic conditions rose by 10%, industry growth by 8%, and company growth by 9%. Access to debt/equity capital improved significantly by 25%, and investment sentiment increased by 26%, reflecting renewed optimism in the sector.

Health Care saw a slight improvement in sentiment, with better scores in investment and company growth expectations. The sector appears to be regaining some stability after a modest decline in Q1.

Information Technology maintained steady confidence levels, with gains in capital access and investment sentiment offsetting minor declines in economic outlook. The sector continues to benefit from its resilience and innovation-driven growth.

Industrials showed signs of cautious optimism, with improved company growth expectations and investment sentiment. However, confidence in economic conditions and industry growth remained subdued.

Utilities experienced a significant decline in confidence, particularly in economic conditions and industry growth. Persistent infrastructure challenges and regulatory uncertainty continue to weigh heavily on sentiment in this sector.

Materials remained largely unchanged from Q1, with sentiment still dampened by weak economic conditions and limited investment appetite.

Real Estate presented a mixed picture while investment sentiment improved, concerns over economic conditions and capital access continued to suppress overall confidence.

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Past Reports

Q1 2025

South African CEO Confidence Plummets Amid Economic Concerns

95% of CEOs believe inefficient and wasteful government spending is the primary cause of South Africa’s budget deficit.

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Q4 2024

70% of CEOs Cautiously Optimistic for 2025 GDP Growth at 1.5% Amid Slight Confidence Drop

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Q3 2024

Merchantec CEO Confidence Index Climbs by 7% in Q3 as CEOs Anticipate a GDP Growth Rate of 1.5%

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Q2 2024

Merchantec CEO Confidence Upswings by 13% in Q2 2024 Amid Economic and Political Optimism in South Africa

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Q1 2024

80% of CEOs believe that the ANC’s support will fall below 50%

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Q4 2023

Siya Kolisi’s Leadership Shines Amidst a 6% Drop in CEO Confidence

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Q3 2023

Over Half of South African CEOs Express Doubts About BRICS Benefits, Reveals CCI Q3 Questionnaire

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Q2 2023

Basic Resources Sector Leads the Way as CEO Confidence Improves

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Q1 2023

100% of CEO’s support Merchantec’s CSR initiative while confidence drops to lowest level since 2019

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Q4 2022

CEOs Confidence deteriorates as the year comes to an end

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Q3 2022

79% of CEO’s believe increased digital inclusion through expanded internet access for SA consumers will benefit their business 

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Q2 2022

75% of CEO’s think that the SA economy will dip into a recession over the next 12 months as CEO Confidence decreases by almost 20%

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Q1 2022

Basic Resources CEO’s Confidence at an all time high while inflation is set to breach SARB’s 3-6% range

Read more

In the Media

Q2 2024 interview with Fifi Peters from CNBC Africa
Q1 2024 interview with Gugulethu Mfuphi of KayaBiz
Q1 2024 interview with Zanele Morrison from CNBC Africa
Q3 2023 interview with Gugulethu Mfuphi of KayaBiz
Q2 2023 interview with Marcelle Gordon from eNCA
Q1 2023 interview with Gareth Edwards from eNCA