Merchantec Capital's CEO Confidence Index

About the CEO Confidence Index

The Merchantec CEO Confidence Index is a quarterly copyright report which collates the views of CEO’s of listed, large private and multinational companies in South Africa since 2009. CEOs are key players in the market and economy and are instrumental in influencing the future of Corporate SA. Therefore, by collecting CEOs views, the CEO Confidence Index provides a leading indicator of economic and market conditions as well as insight into how South African business leaders perceive the economy going forward.

The Index is unique in that it accounts for CEO Confidence according to sectors – making a good connection to Company prospects in the various sectors.

Merchantec Capital supports the Nelson Mandela Children’s Fund

Merchantec Capital has made a commitment to donate R100 to the Nelson Mandela Children’s Fund on behalf of each CEO who completes the questionnaire. Donations will go toward the operation and development of the Nelson Mandela Children’s Hospital, which provides specialised care to South Africa’s underprivileged children. Learn more about this initiative and the beneficiary by clicking here.

Our Latest Report

70% of SA CEOs Cautiously Optimistic for 2025 GDP Growth at 1.5% Amid Slight Confidence Drop

The CEO Confidence Index recorded a 2% decrease between Q3 2024 and Q4 2024, reaching a score of 53.9. Despite this decline, 68% of CEOs still anticipate South Africa’s GDP growth rate for 2025 to be 1.5%, while 32% expect it to exceed 1.5%. This indicates cautious optimism among South African business leaders, driven by recent positive economic developments.

In the Q3 2024 questionnaire, CEOs had expected South Africa’s GDP growth rate to be 1.5% on average. The bonus question for this quarter asked CEOs: “In light of recent positive economic developments, do you still anticipate South Africa’s GDP growth rate for 2025 to be 1.5%, or do you now expect it to be different?” The responses indicate a shift in sentiment, with a significant portion of CEOs now expecting higher growth.

CEOs have expressed that the recent improvements in the business environment and economic policies have given them more confidence in the potential for higher growth. They noted that while challenges remain, the positive developments in infrastructure and governance are encouraging signs for the future. One CEO mentioned that the stability in the political landscape has also contributed to their optimistic outlook. Another CEO highlighted that the increased focus on renewable energy projects is expected to drive economic growth and create new opportunities.

Several CEOs commented on the impact of the Government of National Unity (GNU), noting that while it is too soon to see any real difference, the GNU has made substantial improvements where they can. However, corruption remains a systemic issue that holds back growth and investment. Some CEOs believe that the recent positive sentiment will take time to translate into higher GDP growth, possibly by 2026. Others emphasised the need for policy changes, particularly in areas like BEE, NHI, and foreign policy, to foster real investment and growth.

Consumer Staples recorded a 10% increase moving to a score of 68.13. This was primarily driven by a 18 % increase in confidence relating to their ability to secure debt/equity capital for business activities and a 15% increase in industry growth expectations.

Financials saw a 4% increase in confidence. The increase in sentiment was primarily driven by a 14% increase in confidence relating to economic conditions.

Information Technology recorded a decrease in confidence for the fourth quarter of 2024, down 3% from 63.93 to 62.14 points. The drop in sentiment was primarily driven by a 19% decrease in confidence relating to their ability to secure debt/equity capital and a 12% decrease relating to industry growth expectations.

Health Care recorded a decrease in confidence, down by a significant 15% from 62.5 to 53.33 points. The drop in sentiment was primarily driven by a 27% decrease in confidence relating to company growth expectations.

Materials recorded a decrease in confidence, dropping by 7%. The decrease in sentiment was primarily driven by a 18% decrease in confidence relating, a 12% decrease relating to their industry growth expectations and a 20% decrease relating to their planned level of investment.

Consumer Discretionary went up by 1% moving to a score of 61.15 points.

Real Estate recorded the second highest decrease in confidence dropping to a score of 67 points. The drop in sentiment was primarily driven by an 8% decrease in confidence relating to their company growth expectations, and a 13% decrease in confidence relating to their planned level of investment.

Industrials saw an 4% increase in confidence moving to a score of 64.62 points. The rise in sentiment was primarily driven by a 12% increase in confidence relating to their planned level of investment.

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Past Reports

Q3 2024

Merchantec CEO Confidence Index Climbs by 7% in Q3 as CEOs Anticipate a GDP Growth Rate of 1.5%

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Q2 2024

Merchantec CEO Confidence Upswings by 13% in Q2 2024 Amid Economic and Political Optimism in South Africa

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Q1 2024

80% of CEOs believe that the ANC’s support will fall below 50%

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Q4 2023

Siya Kolisi’s Leadership Shines Amidst a 6% Drop in CEO Confidence

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Q3 2023

Over Half of South African CEOs Express Doubts About BRICS Benefits, Reveals CCI Q3 Questionnaire

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Q2 2023

Basic Resources Sector Leads the Way as CEO Confidence Improves

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Q1 2023

100% of CEO’s support Merchantec’s CSR initiative while confidence drops to lowest level since 2019

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Q4 2022

CEOs Confidence deteriorates as the year comes to an end

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Q3 2022

79% of CEO’s believe increased digital inclusion through expanded internet access for SA consumers will benefit their business 

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Q2 2022

75% of CEO’s think that the SA economy will dip into a recession over the next 12 months as CEO Confidence decreases by almost 20%

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Q1 2022

Basic Resources CEO’s Confidence at an all time high while inflation is set to breach SARB’s 3-6% range

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In the Media

Q2 2024 interview with Fifi Peters from CNBC Africa
Q1 2024 interview with Gugulethu Mfuphi of KayaBiz
Q1 2024 interview with Zanele Morrison from CNBC Africa
Q3 2023 interview with Gugulethu Mfuphi of KayaBiz
Q2 2023 interview with Marcelle Gordon from eNCA
Q1 2023 interview with Gareth Edwards from eNCA